Warmer weather and long school vacations are ahead. This is the time when everyone’s thoughts turn to holidays, if not abroad, then definitely closer to home. However, two new threats to your travel plans are creating consternation worldwide. They are, of course, the recession and swine flu. How real are these threats and how long will they last?Looking at the recession first, leaders in the travel industry are already seeing reduced numbers of people moving around the world.Giovanni Bisgnani, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) says: “Like the rest of the economy, recovery in the air transport sector rests on a rise in consumer confidence and consumer spending. Shedding debt will be a major headwind. US households, for example, are leveraged at 130 percent of annual income. Even bringing this down by five percent erases $500 billion in consumer spending. The challenge for governments is to turn stimulus funds into spending that fuels trade.”Recovery also depends on putting people into seats of planes, coaches and trains. To that end, there are some great deals to be had if you want to travel and know where to look. For example, Vacationstogo (vacationstogo.com) is currently offering 75 per cent off some Alaskan cruises, with special deals for those aged 55 and over, firefighters, police, military – even teachers. This may be a great time to consider visiting those snow-capped mountains, enormous glaciers, bottomless fjords and wildlife like whales, bears, eagles, and seals.There are some good deals about in accommodation as well. Orbitz (orbitz.com) will find deals in large hotels internationally. EuroCheapo (eurocheapo.com) is a good site to look for accommodation if you are planning to travel in Europe. Check out their budget specials and don’t forget to look at the online recommendations of people who have actually stayed in the places you are considering. Remember too that many places will be happy to do a deal if you suggest one (seven nights for the price of six, for example).The threat of contracting swine flu may mean you are rethinking travel plans. Certainly, Mexico would seem a place to avoid just now, but the World Health Organization has not suggested travel restrictions to any country – including Mexico. Keiji Fukuda MD, who is assistant director-general for health security and environment at the WHO, says countries can set their own policies, but general travel restrictions would not be any use in stopping the spread of the virus.Unless you are elderly, already unwell, or suffer from conditions like diabetes, heart or lung disease, general advice is that it’s okay to travel so long as you carry out normal everyday health precautions like handwashing. And it may be a good idea to pop that packet of Tamiflu into your hand luggage as well.Travel companies are tending to stay away from worst hit areas: Carnival Cruises has already cancelled stops at Mexican ports for three ships and Transat AT, a tour operator from Canada, has postponed flights to Mexico for the next month.This may just be a time to wait and see. Oil companies’ share prices, closely linked to the travel industry, have taken a tumble. When they start to move up again, we will know the world economy – and people’s health – are also trending upwards.